The Universidad Francisco Marroquín (UFM) hosted its annual lecture series at the Milton Friedman Auditorium, featuring economist Christopher Lingle. The lecture addressed the central question of what causes economic bubbles, why China’s case matters, and how global financial dynamics shaped its current situation. By linking observations since 1987 with comparative analysis, Lingle argued that policy-driven distortions, central bank interventions, and political control have positioned China’s economy at a turning point.

“Government interventions whether or not they're well-intended or based upon evil or ideology lead to distortions and imbalances in the economy.” — Christopher Lingle

To start with, Lingle explained the mechanics of bubbles. He noted that excess central bank liquidity fuels asset price inflation. Governments, aiming to stabilize economies, often create conditions for malinvestment and later contraction. He cited the U.S. housing crisis as an example, warning that China’s case might prove larger in scale.

Besides, Lingle examined China’s debt ratio. According to him, the nation’s debt-to-GDP ratio rose from 150% in 2008 to more than 330%. What made this notable was the efficiency decline: where once $1 of investment yielded $1 of growth, China now requires $4 of investment to produce the same outcome.

Another factor involves local government debt and the property market. Entire cities, financed through shadow banking, remain under-occupied. Such investment reflects a system that favors immediate targets over sustainable growth. The comparison to Japan’s bubble economy of the 1980s revealed parallels. Yet China’s expansion lasted longer because of global liquidity injections from foreign central banks and purchases of U.S. Treasuries.

“The slower China’s economy grows, the more political control is imposed—and the cycle feeds itself.” — Christopher Lingle

On the other hand, Lingle analyzed the political dimension. Under Xi Jinping, power has concentrated, increasing state control and reducing flexibility in economic management. This loop, slower growth justifying tighter control, which in turn slows growth further, creates a lasting weakness. Combined with demographic change and the relocation of manufacturing to countries such as Vietnam and Mexico, China faces both internal and external pressures.

Finally, the lecture emphasized how systemic vulnerability emerges from incentives. While the global economy enabled China’s rise, the same connections now expand risks of its downturn.

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